Exit polls: Hitler and the Devil rolled into one

Ahh exit polls, the thing that get Democrat hearts aflutter, before horrible reality comes in and throws gasoline on your hopes and sets the bastard alight. They were wrong about Gore (missed a crucial 5 votes on Maryland Ave in Washington DC) and Kerry (landslide!), and Karl Rove got to rub his festering sack on your head those two nights when the networks released them early, convinced you the world was just and good, then yanked your seat out from under you and laughed as you fell when the real numbers came in. Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight has a list (and multiple paragraphs) of reasons to ignore them this time.

1. Exit polls have a much larger intrinsic margin for error than regular polls.
2. Exit polls have consistently overstated the Democratic share of the vote.
3. Exit polls were particularly bad in this year's primaries.
4. Exit polls challenge the definition of a random sample.
5. Democrats may be more likely to participate in exit polls.
6. Exit polls may have problems calibrating results from early voting.
7. Exit polls may also miss late voters.
8. "Leaked" exit poll results may not be the genuine article.
9. A high-turnout election may make demographic weighting difficult.
10. You'll know the actual results soon enough anyway.

Also, exit polls sneak into your room when you pass out and draw dicks and balls on your face, exit polls hid the truth about the contaminated water in the local reservoir, exit polls don't pay no child support on all its kids, and exit polls helped hide Eichmann in Argentina. So when they get leaked early, don't start the celebratory drinking or the victory dance you choreographed, just stay calm. Take note of them, ignore them, and continue on with the normal midday drinking you do. You'll know soon enough.