franken_net = t * 8.922 - 3.622Of course he says, it's all subject to blah blah blah and might not be accurate blah blah, but the man has charts and equations. It's over. Franken wins by 27. Nate Silver is the math Gandalf.
Now, we can attempt to solve this equation at the statewide level. When we plug in a t of .499956 -- Franken was picked on just slightly very less than half of the ballots during the initial count -- we get a value for franken_net of .837. That is, Franken will gain a net of .837 votes for every 10,000 cast. With a total of 2,885,555 ballots having been recorded in the initial count, this works out to a projected gain of 242 votes for Franken statewide. Since Norm Coleman led by 215 votes in the initial count, this suggests that Franken will win by 27 votes once the recount process is complete (including specifically the adjudication of all challenged ballots).
And if Franken does win by 27, I'm burning Nate Silver as a witch. Fair warning.
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