McCain's path to victory

So John McCain has pulled out of Michigan. Various "poll of polls" averages have him behind in Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida. Now his people are whispering that McCain's path to victory will have to come without three more Bush states: New Mexico, Iowa, and Colorado.

The McCain campaign is looking at an Electoral College strategy heading into the final two weeks that has virtually no room for error and depends heavily on a dramatic comeback in Pennsylvania, which hasn't backed a Republican for president in 20 years.

While Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado are still officially listed as McCain target states, two top strategists and advisers tell CNN that the situation in those states looks increasingly bleak. Iowa and New Mexico always have been viewed as difficult races, but the similar assessment of Colorado reflects a dramatic shift for a campaign that had long counted on the state.

"Gone," was the word one top McCain insider used to describe those three states.

Looks like you're fucked then John. The key area where they think they'll get hammered in Colorado is on the ground game/turnout. So if the McCain camp is right and Obama adds Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado (the first two are almost certain) to the tally, then McCain has to hold Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, Virginia, and Nevada...and he still won't have an electoral victory if Obama keeps the Kerry states. Keeping in mind that Missouri is the only one of those states where he currently holds a lead (though Obama doesn't lead in Ohio and Florida by much), he would have to take every single one of those states and add Pennsylvania to win.

That's rich, make up 10-15 points in PA in two weeks, out organize Obama AND the Rendell machine, and do it all with your "throw shit at a wall and see what sticks" strategy. Good luck, it ain't gonna happen. So if this is what McCain insiders are telling CNN's John King, they're basically admitting defeat. Barring the inevitable bin Laden tape a week before the election. It'll have to be a good one too, with OBL showing pictures of him and Obama hanging out at a madrassa planning 9/11. Then PA's within reach.