Unhappy new year

Ahhh, it's a new year and a new decade and things feel wonderful. That sense of new possibilities and opportunities permeating the air. What makes it great is... oh, what's that? Every economist in America, did you have something to add?

Speaking at American Economic Association's mammoth yearly gathering, experts from a range of political leanings were in surprising agreement when it came to the chances for a robust and sustained expansion:

They are slim.

Many predicted U.S. gross domestic product would expand less than 2 percent per year over the next 10 years. That stands in sharp contrast to the immediate aftermath of other steep economic downturns, which have usually elicited a growth surge in their wake.

Well fuck you too.

Sure the article quotes Martin Feldstein, Joseph Stiglitz, and Kenneth Rogoff, but who are they any way? Other than the former head of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a Nobel laureate, and a former IMF economist/Fed Board member respectively? Just a bunch of gainsayers who can't let us get four days into a new year and decade without yelling about how shitty it's going to be, just because American's primary source of wealth, their homes, has been severely weakened, consumer debt is staggeringly high, there's nothing in place to replace the housing boom and consumer spending that previously drove growth, the banks are reliant on Fed funding and Treasury backing, and finance companies are artificially padding their bottom lines with zero cost government loans.

But what about America's undying sense of optimism, freedom, and, uh... wishing none of this had happened? Apparently none of these things count.

Even the relentlessly cheery, gumdrops and sunshine musings of the affable optimist Paul Krugman are filled with ill omens he's reading after consulting the bones and the increased swelling he's feeling in his pessimism gland. He says he's getting that 1937 feeling, where government and the Fed declared the Great Depression fixed and all over, cut spending, tightened monetary policy... and dove back into a depression. He sees the same signs and notes the fact that the Fed is already taking steps to tighten monetary policy.

So... happy new year. I know you were hoping for some fresh start, but the best and brightest economists in the country say no. Don't get mad at me. I wanted you to have a good economy, but they said no. Something about "the facts saying otherwise". The bright side? Well... I guess if you were an economist you could make a lot of money making economic predictions. For the rest of us though, it looks like a meandering decade of stagnant growth followed by a slow descent into the long awaited hobo economy. Sorry. I was going to let you bask in the optimism of a new year for a few more days, but the American Economic Association wanted to do it their way. I guess it's for the best.

Cheap Blogging Crutch 09.21

Blue Dog Democrats eye new financial reform
Let me assure you, you're reading that headline wrong. Sure you may think it says "Blue Dog Democrats eye new financial reform", but what it really says is "Blue Dogs seek to fuck over decent financial reform". Mostly by scuttling a planned Consumer Protection Agency and weakening planned regulation. Because if this global financial apocalypse taught us one thing, it's that we don't really need to keep an eye on that whole financial and banking sector. They're good people.

Good Billions After Bad
Vanity Fair comes at us with a piece that alleges that the trillions from the TARP bailout package seemed to have large chunks of the money spent poorly, being put in the wrong hands, and doing the opposite of what was needed. And all just because the system was designed without restrictions, accountability, or common sense by the Paulson Treasury Department. Are you shocked? Neither am I. Rest assured though, nothing will be done and the next time a problem like this rolls around, nothing will be learned.

Ahmadinejad: Holocaust Denial A Source Of Pride
Some people take pride in a job well done, others by helping someone else out. Then there are others, "assholes" we call them, who take pride in denying one of the most widely documented events in human history. Couldn't he take pride in rigging an election and suppressing a revolution? At least that's an achievement. Still, this is probably the smartest way to kick off your big "message of peace and friendship" UN trip.

Steve Keen Out-Thinks Larry Summers
One of the great things about this economic meltdown, besides the hobo-grade tins of beans, hopping boxcars, and all this free time, has been watching some of the most respected economists in the world armor up, grab a truncheon and a shield, and wade into the Thunderdome to do battle on the bloody fields of economic theory. Up next is Australian economist Steve Keen, who hopes to garrote Larry Summers over the Obama Administration's economic approach and neoclassical economic theory. Winner faces the viking helmeted Joseph Stiglitz and his steel murder talons in the next round.

I'm Such A Shitty Senator
The Onion was able to look at Max Baucus and see the future, why couldn't anyone within the Democratic caucus or White House see? I mean just look at that S.915 Semiconductor Investment Act. What in the hell was that shit?

Cheap Blogging Crutch 09.18

CBO dismisses co-ops' relevance
Lost in the shuffle yesterday was a little revelation from the Congressional Budget Office. The co-op's, the supposed non-socialist answer to a public plan that would provide all of the benefits of price reduction, competition, and coverage without the fascism, are ineffective, don't reduce costs or increase coverage. I'm betting little things like that won't stand in the way of co-ops being in the bill. Why? Because we're governed by adults.

Okay, you lazy bitch
Hunter S. Thompson, from the grave. Letters of note brings us a 2001 letter HST dashed off to the soon to be defunct studio the Shooting Gallery, complaining that they were dragging their feet on an adaptation of the Rum Diary, which is something that only was able to start filming this year. It's classic Thompson, with liberal use of the underline function and phrases like "waterhead fuckaround", threats of dismemberment, as well as constant assaults on their professionalism and dilettante behavior.

Nobel winner Joseph Stiglitz predicts recession's end: not now, but 2012
Now, now, This counts as staggering optimism from Stiglitz. Sure he's pessimistic about everything that's going on now to deal with the financial apocalypse, but he's confident that in the future the recession will eventually end. Oh, not because of any actions taken or laws passed or bailouts handed out, just because he's a big Mayan calendar buff and he feels the world will end in 2012. That headline is a little misleading, it should read: "Stiglitz predicts recessions end, along with all life as we know it in 2012."

Baucus and the Threshold
It's pessimistic economists showing optimism day, as Paul Krugman looks at the Baucus bill and deems it to exceed his low, low, low, low, low expectations. Hell, he even has convinced himself that it will be improved when it gets to the full Senate. But he mainly centers the article around the question that while the Baucus bill has large flaws it is an improvement over what we have, so at what point do people have to accept that fact, accept that the bill won't have everything they like, and move forward and support it?

Study links 45,000 U.S. deaths to lack of insurance
That's right, more people die from lack of insurance than drunk driving, homicide, and drunk homicide combined and have a 40% higher risk of death than peopl ewith coverage. That's a very controversial opinion Harvard researchers have put forth: that people without coverage are more likely to die from things that coverage can help prevent. It could be worse; they could be insured and just be deemed too sick to use it.

Cheap Blogging Crutch 09.14

It’s Showdown Week for the Baucus Six, With a Medicaid Fight Looming
Max Baucus is finally ready to put his chairman's seal of approval on some health care legislation this week. The only question is if he'll be able to forge some sort of compromise with the bill they've written and get Republican lawmakers to sign on (HA!), or if he'll just rubber stamp the bill without their support. Because after all, after the bill that you've crafted with the expressed purpose of gaining Republican votes fails to get the Republican votes of the people who directly negotiated with, the only solution is to move forward with that bill and all the provisions in it that failed to capture Republican votes.

Charles Darwin film 'too controversial for religious America'
I don't know whether to sing a verse from the "Star Spangled Banner" or "America, Fuck Yeah!" here. A dramatic film about Darwin that is only marginally about evolution has gotten distribution in every other country, but can't get distribution here...for some reason. Now sure, some might say that it's just because the movie is "Flat, dull, and painful to sit through", but that didn't stop Transformers 2, or half-to-three quarters of all movies that get released. Oh well, maybe we can get a documentary about the facts behind the Creation Museum instead.

Closing The Book On The Bush Legacy
Who would have ever thought that a census could ever provide a furious smackdown of the Bush legacy? But when you look at the trend lines from previous Presidents comparing median income, adults living in poverty, children living in poverty, access to health care, Americans uninsured, Americans receiving employer health insurance, Amer.....look it's rather a lot of things, we'll just say "everything either declined in a bad way or rose in a bad way" and be done with it.

Stiglitz Says Banking Problems Are Now Bigger Than Pre-Lehman
What is it with these Nobel Prize winning economists and their need to let everyone know that not only were they right about the economic collapse, but that they have some new soul crushing revelations? Things are worse and problems are larger? Who would have ever thought that would be the result after a Congress completely in the pocket of the banking and financial industries committed themselves to doing nothing other than handing out large sums of cash? For those of you that are interested, this is Part 124,868 in the series America: Not Learning From It's Mistakes.

Santorum Admits to Pondering Run for Republican Presidential Nomination - Asks for Prayers
Can he tell if the prayers are coming from heathen sources only wishing for him to engage in electoral failure that matches this moment of greatness? Surely he's going to be able to tell that my prayers, Sean's prayers, and Dan Savage's prayers aren't filled with anything other than malicious intent, right?

Labor Day CBC

Labor Day by the numbers
The Economic Policy Institute gives us the lowdown on the state of the economy as of this Labor Day. Maybe you don't want to look at it. Sure there are negative things, like the fact that we've lost jobs over the past decade and out future is shaping up to be bleaker than the Road, but hey, it might be a nice day out where you are.

Stiglitz: Odds of Robust US Rebound 'Very, Very Weak'
Yeah...always gotta love it when a Nobel laureate who saw the housing crisis coming, warned about the size of the bailout not being enough, fights crime in tandem with Paul Krugman, and has generally been right every step of the way warns that there's a greater chance for a double-dip recession than a robust recovery. But what does he know, he's only a genius economist? I saw everyone on CNBC and they seemed optimistic.

New Fee on Health Insurance Companies Is Proposed to Help Expand Coverage
Max Baucus has released his last ditch plan to get Republicans who will never vote for it...to vote for it. It's an immense shit sandwich that provides no public option, taxes insurance companies, involves weaker subsidies to get health insurance which might just burden the poor even more, and costs a lot of money to not do what its supposed to do. In other words: it pisses everyone while providing the added benefit of not fixing problems. But it does cost a lot. So at least it has that going for it.

Points of Comparison
TPM looks at what Baucus proposed as a comparison to other health care systems in the world. It sort of looks like Baucus is trying to create some sort of bastardized version of the Swiss system, which is the second most expensive health care system in the world behind the good ole United States of Freedom. This totally doesn't sound like a complete catastrophe for Democrats.

The Spreading Scandal In Jai Alai
In honor of the Mad Men episode from last night, I give you Sport's Illustrated's 1979 story on a Jai Alai gambling scandal. Mobsters, Connecticut, and Jai ALai, you try to stay away. This is the biggest reason Jai Alai isn't the most popular sport in America right now, I'm sure of it.