Cheap Blogging Crutch - 5.4.10

Welcome to your semi-daily assortment of linkage, hastily cobbled together by yours truly as Matthew continues to recover from the nasty bout of Syphilis Super AIDS that has crippled him for close to a week now. In lieu of flowers, we ask that you send stacks of unmarked, non-sequential bills to my attention, c/o Jon & John's House of Starchy Living and Temperance Den, Brooklyn, NY.

An adaption of Hunter S. Thompson's "Prisoner of Denver," which he co-wrote with Vanity Fair contributing editor Mark Seal, has been picked up for treatment by Motion Picture Corporation of America. Given the pace at which The Rum Diary adaptation has moved, "Prisoner of Denver" is set for release in the summer of 2028.

Phoenix Suns Managing Partner Robert Sarver announced that in protest of the new Arizona immigration law, his team will wear their "Los Suns" jerseys for tomorrow's Cinco de Mayo game against the San Antonio Spurs. No word yet on when Sarver will learn that the Spanish word for sun is "sol."

What I Wore narcissism fashion blogger, Jessica Schroeder, has landed a book deal with Random House imprint Ballantine. The literary community rejoiced at the news that pretty, self-involved, materialistic New York women will finally be represented in contemporary media.

Soothsayer Nate Silver over at fivethirtyeight updated his forecast for the upcoming UK election, predicting that Conservatives will win 308 seats. As an American, this means absolutely nothing to you. And they still haven't fixed Steve Coogan's mother's wall, the bastards.

Finally, on a happy note, Paul Rudd sweats funny.

The massive unpopularity of health care reform

Nate Silver of 538 takes a look at a recent poll done by the Kaiser Family Foundation claims that the health care bill is unpopular. The conclusion? That while while people react differently to the phrase "health care reform" or "Senate health care bill", when they are asked whether or not they are for or against specific provisions within the Senate health bill there is not only almost overwhelming support for those provisions, but the entire bill itself. The problem? With most provisions the public is only marginally aware that they are contained within the Senate bill.

Let's see. When told of specific provisions of the bill the public is broadly supportive and for the reforms under consideration. Numerous political experts are screaming that the only chance Democrats will have in November is for the House to pass the goddamn Senate bill. Numerous health care experts are screeching that for the betterment of the US health care system the House needs to pass the goddamn Senate bill. So what are Democrats going to do? Dick around, delay, and start over in an attempt to pass some watered down, lesser, piecemeal version of the Senate bill. Maybe. Maybe just give up.

Of course they are. "Health care reform" is "unpopular", legislating is haaaaard, and there is that 41-59 Republican majority to think about. Never underestimate the ability o Democrats to look at the facts and the political reality of a situation, choose to replace that reality with one of their own mental creation, and convince themselves that showing massive weakness and getting nothing done is the best way forward. Well done, Democrats. Well done.

Cheap Blogging Crutch 10.28

Fox-Friendly Poll on Imaginary White House Policies
From Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting comes a report of a dandy of a poll from Fox News and Zogby whereupon they ask the question if Americans think that Obama's communist diversity czar's imaginary desire to force out the "good white people" in the broadcast industry to make room for the blacks and the gays and the gay blacks represents a threat to free speech. Nothing like a little conspiratorial race bait push polling to start your day. Gee, I wonder why it is that the Obama Administration doesn't like Fox News?

Analysis: Public Option Is Likely Popular in Most Blue Dog Districts
Nate Silver of 538 works his number witchcraft to look at the popularity of the public option....in every single congressional district. The conclusion? That the public option has support in almost 2/3rds of all districts and in regards to the biggest Democratic gainsayers, the Blue Dog caucus, the public option holds majority support in 34 of 52 of their districts. The conclusion supposedly being that a public option should have more support of our elected betters. Ahh Nate, your cold robot logic has failed you again. Don't you know no one in Congress actually cares about what its constituents thinks? But we do appreciate you giving us yet another mathematically valid reason to hate everyone in Congress.

New York Fed’s Secret Choice to Pay for Swaps Hits Taxpayers
Pop quiz: how do you get AIG to look good? Answer: Make sure they're being compared to Tim Geithner. That's right our beloved Treasury Secretary Timmy demanded that the US government pay AIG 100 cents on the dollar for their utterly worthless credit default swaps when AIG was only seeking to get 40 cents on the dollar for them. This cost taxpayers and additional $13 billion dollars. The kicker? This allowed AIG to pay back the $14 billion it owed to Timbo's former employer Goldman-Sachs. Next time Tim, can you put on some cowboy gear, cover your face with a black bandanna, tell us "to reach for the sky", and make us pile the money into a burlap sack with a dollar sign on it? If we're going to get robbed, can we at least get to appreciate the theatre of it?

Losing Net Neutrality: The Worst Case Scenario
Gizmodo links to a half satirical/half terrifying representation of what kind of internet deal we'll be getting from cable companies if Congress votes to ditch net neutrality. Why wouldn't we want our internet priced out and divided up like cable channels, everyone loves how that works, don't they?

LHC Reawakens, Sending Proton Beams Running at the Speed of Light
Finally the scientific community gets off its lazy, goldbricking asses and starts trying to kill God in earnest again. They've fixed the helium leak, stopped the problem they've had with magnets overheating, scrapped plans to convert the LHC into a pussy magnet, and found that missing pallet of particles that idiot Jenkins misplaced. Hopefully within the next few months God will be dead or the French/Swiss border will find it has a new black hole taking up residence and consuming our solar system. Just get it over with, it's not like any of us have jobs or anything to live for.

Quote of the day

Philip Spooner, World War II vet, on the gay marriage debate currently going on in Maine.

I am here today because of a conversation I had last June when I was voting. A woman at my polling place asked me, "Do you believe in equal, equality for gay and lesbian people?" I was pretty surprised to be asked a question like that. It made no sense to me. Finally I asked her, "What do you think our boys fought for at Omaha Beach?" I haven't seen much, so much blood and guts, so much suffering, much sacrifice. For what? For freedom and equality. These are the values that give America a great nation, one worth dying for.

The quest to repeal gay marriage rights in Maine through the Question 1 ballot initiative is going to be voted on soon. And surprise of surprises the opposition to it is from the same groups that got Prop 8 passed in California. Numbers overlord Nate Silver of 538.com says the ban is likely to fail, but that it'll be close either way. I guess the question is do people in Maine hate freedom, liberty, veterans, World War II, the D-Day assault, the military, our victory against the Axis powers, and equality so much that they would overturn the rights of gays to marry and tacitly endorse Hitler's invasion into Poland and annexation of the Sudetenland? I guess we'll find out on November 3rd.

Cheap Blogging Crutch 07.03

The Great American Bubble Machine
Matt Taibbi decides to take a look at Goldman-Sachs and their manipulation of financial crisis' to their advantage, their culpability in creating bubbles, and their governmental influence and manages not to sound like a tinfoil hatted crank. He begins by calling them a "a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money" and the piece has resulted in GS shrieking hysterically at him for daring to point out some obvious facts. Unfortunately Rolling Stone has only put up excerpts from the article, so to see the full body blow he delivers you'll have to buy the magazine. I think it's worth a purchase.

To Critics, New Policy on Terror Looks Old
Charlie Savage of the New York Times takes a look at some of the Obama Administration's embraces of Bush era....let's call them unethical dalliances. The picture painted is not too pretty as many of the policies have now become entrenched methods and have now been legitimized. Some would even go so far as to say all Obama has done is just enact the “liberal, centrist, Democratic version of the construction of these same governing practices.” I think he forgets one important factor: it's OK because a Democrat is doing it. At least I think that's the going rationale for some these days. If you're interested, Savage does an interview with Glenn Greenwald where they point out and discuss all this stuff.

In Tactical Shift, Troops Will Stay and Hold Ground in Afghanistan
Hey what present did you want to receive in celebration of the Nation's impending 233rd birthday? If it was a major increase of ground forces in Afghanistan and an escalation in combat in a concerted effort to knock the Taliban out of the country, then you're in luck. This is all part of President Obama's larger body of work entitled "Doing things that were supposed to have been done eight years ago". It's a work of art that will be on display around this country for at least until January of 2013.

This Post Brought to You by Poker
Wonkish statistics molester Nate Silver has decided to put his robot brain to work mathematically analyzing the game of poker and using it to slay the competition at the World Series of Poker. It's ostensibly "research" for a "book", but papa needs money and he's got a gambling itch to scratch. He also discusses the UIGEA law that helped the rise of online poker and efforts to legalize (and tax) online poker. But we'll have to wait for what we're all interested in: video of Silver dominating the competition as he tries to understand the human emotions surrounding "loss" and "anguish".

Lunar Probe Sends First High-Res Images
NASA has sent a probe up to the moon and unlike the Japanese has no plans to smash it into the Sea of Tranquility for shits and giggles. No, they're taking photos, mapping it, and gathering data for America's glorious "safe human return to the moon". That's right moon, we're making you our bitch again...or for the first time depending on various conspiracy theories. In any event this is all part of NASA's new mission to do awesome covers of its old material.

Everybody chill out. Nate Silver is here.

America's #1 pop statistician (yes, we have those) chimes in on some, ahem, irregularities in rural voting patterns during Iran's recent presidential election. Apparently all of the farmers suddenly love Ahmadinejad.

This means that at least one of two things must be true. Either the urban-rural dynamics of Iran have changed significantly over the last four years -- at least insofar as it they affected perceptions of a candidate like Ahmadinejad. Or, alternatively, the election was rigged, and those who rigged it for some reason decided that rural votes were easier to steal.

Enjoy your fatwa, Nate. You'll be missed.

Broken News: Nate Silver predicts lottery numbers, promptly vanishes

NEW YORK--Statistician and journalist Nate Silver, who created the popular poll analysis website fivethirtyeight.com, disappeared almost immediately after successfully forecasting the winning numbers for the New York Mega Millions lottery. The jackpot was worth just over $294 million at the time of Silver's win.

Lottery officials are still trying to determine whether a complex algorithm capable of predicting both the proper date and numerical sequence upon which to wager constitutes a violation of state law.

"Frankly, we're at a loss" said New York State Lottery Commissioner Eliot Glassberg. "If he had tampered with the equipment or the staff, we'd already be arranging a bail hearing. But a remarkable instance of logical conjecture based on extrapolations from a battery of data going back decades? Kind of a gray area. In any event, he'll have to share the jackpot with a mechanic from Albany who won by picking numbers comprised of his Uncle Sully's birthday and the opening day lineup numbers of the Mets infield."

According to friends and family, the 31 year-old Silver, whose near-perfect electoral forecasts brought him national attention in 2008 after six years as a Managing Partner at Baseball Prospectus, gave no indication that he had concocted a method of winning hundreds of millions of dollars.

"These last couple of months, Nate had been spending a lot of time on something he called the 'CM Initiative'," said Silver's writing partner, poker player and political analyst Sean Quinn, who began writing for fivethirtyeight during the 2008 presidential race. "He played that pretty close to the vest, although Nate did eventually tell me that 'CM' stood for 'Cashey Money'."

Added Quinn, "He called me the other night and said he'd be taking some time off. Now that I think about it, he sounded a little drunk. I distinctly remember him saying something about sitting at a Vegas poker table until he was 'too drunk or too dead' to continue. Then maybe something about an island, and maybe a tangible universe of numbers and calculations which he presided over as if he were God? I can't be sure -- it was too hard to understand him through all of that maniacal laughter."

Another frequent contributor to fivethirtyeight, Andrew Gelman, professor of statistics and political science at Columbia University, did not seem the least bit surprised by Silver's sudden disappearance.

"Look, in this city, brains like Nate's will probably have you pulling steady 7.5-8 caliber tail. But brains and nine-figure money? Let's just say that if you're looking for Nate, I would start the search in Tensville."

A search of Silver's apartment turned up little. Apart from an extensive library, several custom-built computers, a 216-digit number that contained the true name of God, and likely the largest collection of newspaper box scores ever assembled, investigators found only a hand-written note stating the following:

"I have calculated the odds of a complete and irrevocable collapse of the global economy, and of civilization as we know it, at 3:2. Good luck."

In a haunting coda, the note then asked that the detective reading it to "...please fix your striped blue tie, get those size 10 Rockford boots off the front right corner of my coffee table, stop thinking about the ass of that girl behind the counter at the corner store, and call your wife Shelia about dinner with the Califaros tonight, because there's been a problem. I know all."

As of this writing, said detective is being counseled for mental anguish resulting from the brutal shattering of his notions of causality and fate, as well as the violation of what he had considered private thoughts.

Lottery officials confirmed that Silver had accepted his half of the one-time payout option, worth approximately $76 million after taxes, in the form of a cashier's check.

A nice, hot cup of awkward

Think we could get a case of this into Governor Blagojevich's cell?



Also, I wish I had viable stats on how frequently journalists and bloggers have had to spellcheck "Blagojevich" over the last few days. Seriously, ponder the lost hours of productivity. In tough economic times like these, we simply cannot afford to squander resources for the sake of accuracy when it comes to goofy last names.

My proposal? Pay-Rod. Short, simple, direct, and nobody has to look up the proper spelling.

While this floats, can someone get Nate Silver on those stats I requested?

AK Senate polling post-Smash

Stats savant Nate Silver takes a shot at predicting Ted Stevens' (Felon-AK) upcoming plunge in the polls courtesy of yesterday's little incident.

Let's assume that Stevens will also suffer a decline in his net approval score of 18 points. Since he's at roughly 50/50 now, that would put him in the range of 40 percent approve, 60 percent disapprove. Our regression model uses approval ratings for incumbent senators as one of its inputs, and thinks a decline of this magnitude would cost a senator about 6 points in the polls ... actually, 5.8 points. So what we're going to do is apply a 5.8 point penalty to Stevens' numbers in Alaska. Since the race was a toss-up before, this puts him about 6 points behind overall, making Mark Begich an 87 percent favorite to take his seat.

Silver is quick to call this forecast preliminary and even "conservative," but we won't really know until the polls commissioned yesterday come back in. Stay tuned and keep your eyes on Minnesota, Georgia, Mississippi, and Kentucky.