Your sunshine and smiles of the day

The Afghanistan NGO Security Office takes a look at our Afghanistan surge, how our new policies are working, what our chances for success are, and the general state of things in the graveyard of empires. They're glass half empty people.

The US military build-up in Kandahar is likely to further strengthen the hold of the Taliban over the vital southern Afghanistan city, a highly respected security organisation said today in a bleak report warning of record Taliban violence and rising civilian deaths across the country.

The report by the Afghanistan NGO Security Office, which monitors trends in violence on behalf of aid organisations, said Nato's counter-insurgency strategy was not showing any signs of succeeding amid rising violence, the unchecked establishment of local militias and a huge increase in attacks on private development workers across the country.
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"We do not support the [counter-insurgency] perspective that this constitutes 'things getting worse before they get better', but rather see it as being consistent with the five-year trend of things just getting worse," the report said.

Come now, as long as we're able to get enough security forces and military trained up the we can have them take over the fight for us, we need to prop up the main and local governments to give them the support they need, our new strategies and counter-insurgency tactics need to be given time to work, we have to get the tribal leaders and people to understand that they have to come together to stand against the Taliban, know that we're in this for the long haul for the safety and security of Afghanistan as well as America, and other various statements, we'll get this thing won.

So buck up and don't listen to these naysayers, because this, and anything and everything that happens in Afghanistan, just shows that we're taking the fight to them and slowly turning the tide. As long as you don't note that we've been saying things like this for almost a full decade without any signs of discernible progress or an end in sight, then you can pretend that the end is just over that next insurgent infested mountainside.

So keep up with your naysaying, highly respected international observers and NGO's, this is all just part of a complex plan of success that smarty pants experts like you are completely unable to discern. Seriously, just as soon as we get those police, security, and military forces trained up, things will get better. I know that has turned into a sort of Escher painting where they're always being trained yet never finished training, but once we get that done, all these things that look like a slowly dawning failure will, in actuality, flip and become successes right at the end.

Just a couple more years, we just need a couple more years.

All that history

It's Monday and freedom is still dead. I'm sure you felt it die, as I did, late Saturday night. That sharp stabbing pain in your Liberty Gland as you felt all your blood eagles dissipate and a steep drop in the patriotoxins that stimulate your brain. Yes, health care passed the House and we're all gonna fucking die.

At least that's what I think happened. Granted I'm basing that on all the GOP's floor speeches before the bill passed, so my information might not be 100% accurate, but I'm fairly sure that's the medical process we all went through as the Democrats made sure that freedom was garroted and robots were sent back in time to rape the founding fathers. Yes, the House of Representatives stood up and said "YES! We can barely support mild, minor health reforms by the slimmest of margins!" and then proceeded to rack up injuries patting their own backs and attempting to blow themselves.

But it wasn't without complications and stories. 64 Democrats and the Republican caucus voted to strip abortion and reproductive rights out of the bill. Because, as always, a bunch of men following the moral compass of an organization that is fighting bankruptcy because of all the child rapes it covered up, know better than women about women's bodies. Isn't that always the way? 39 Democrats ended up voting against the bill, while only one Republican voted for it, Rep. Joseph Cao of Louisiana. I guess that makes the bill "bipartisan" and we have to pretend he acted as a man of conscience, instead of what really happened: Cao coming down with an acute case of "District full of black people that Obama won by 75%" and knowing he wasn't going to have the luxury of Richard Jefferson being the most corrupt man on earth to sweep him back into power.

So history has happened: health care has passed the House. And for as disappointing as the bill was and for how even more disappointing the Senate bill will be, that's something that every Democratic or Republican President who vowed to "reform health care" wasn't able to do. Now we sit and wait for the Senate...and the conference committees....then back to each body for voting again......this is still going to be weeks and weeks and weeks an weeks until anything concrete happens. Ugh. I can imagine what the Senate deliberations are going to look like. Still....history,....mediocre, over-compromised history. That's...something.

Elections, Afghanistan style

What's the best way to win an election? Rig it. But what if dirty foreigners have already found out you rigged it and are making you follow your own Constitutional laws by having a second round? Run un-opposed. Works for Hamid Karzai.

Afghan officials on Monday canceled plans for a runoff presidential vote, declaring President Hamid Karzai the winner after the withdrawal on Sunday of his last remaining challenger, Abdullah Abdullah.

The announcement capped a fraught election widely depicted as deeply flawed by corruption and voting irregularities.

Azizullah Ludin, the chairman of Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission, said the Constitution did not require a runoff and the second-round vote had been canceled after Mr. Abdullah’s announcement that he was dropping out of the race.

And so begins another term for the man charmingly called a "Weak Partner in Time of War". Why did Abdullah Abdullah drop out? Some combination of wanting to spare Afghans the election costs and insurgent attack risks inherent in a second round of elections, an offer from the CIA of big time money like Karzai's brother gets, the emergence of a pesky red laser dot that appeared on his chest last week and kept moving from his heart to between his eyes an back to his heart over and over again, and a desire not to fall victim to another election rigging on the "rig an election once, shame on you; rig an election twice, shame on me" principle.

Finally, now that Karzai has "won", we can get down to the business of sending our last remaining troops there to start Operation Our Bad, We Really Should Have Done This Stuff Eight Years Ago, Better Late Than Never, Right? But don't worry, Afghanistan's, shall we say, contentious history with occupying forces, combined with the fact that it took us nearly eight years of bombing runs and fighting to actually conceive of a strategy, widespread corruption in the Karzai government, their drug trade economy and drug lord power hierarchy, combined with the fact that we still know little to nothing about the politics and people of the area will all be figured out....by dicking around there for another six months or so. Well, at least we've got those pesky election questions out of the way. That'll probably fix most of it.

This will never end

Hey, will you look at that? The United States is finally headed towards pulling out of Iraq. They've removed 23,000 soldiers this year with the plan to get down to 50,000 non-combat troops in an advisory situation to the Iraqi government. You know, I never thought that we'd ever actually get to a point where....what's that you say? Afghanistan? .......Christ.

President Obama announced in March that he would be sending 21,000 additional troops to Afghanistan. But in an unannounced move, the White House has also authorized -- and the Pentagon is deploying -- at least 13,000 troops beyond that number, according to defense officials.
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The deployment of the support troops to Afghanistan brings the total increase approved by Obama to 34,000. The buildup has raised the number of U.S. troops deployed to the war zones of Iraq and Afghanistan above the peak during the Iraq "surge" that President George W. Bush ordered, officials said.

/ bangs head off desk

Well, there goes that. Oh, and we haven't even gotten to the part about whether McChrystal gets an additional 40,000-70,000 combat troops like he wants. Sure the war is being called a "lost cause", the Taliban is resurgent in addition to al Qaeda, we have to deal with Afghan/Pakistan conflicts in addition to the war we're fighting, and all for a "government" that not only just rigged an election, but despite the international community funding, protecting, maintaining, and supporting the "government", it views a look into said election rigging as some form of heinous international interference.

But trust everyone: escalating a war in Afghanistan is always a good idea. Plus they're going to try a new strategy: counterinsurgency. See...oh fuck, they haven't been doing a counter-insurgent campaign all these years? So glad we're deciding to get to all of this now. This all sounds like such a great idea. Excuse me there's a desk I need to bang my forehead off of.

Chart of the day

Just a friendly reminder from the New York Times: we're about to simultaneously have the two longest running American wars of all time. Excuse me, I meant to say: of all time!!! Funnily enough they used the graphic in an article where President Nobel was explaining how every option in Afghanistan was on the table....except the option of reducing troops or leaving. Of note: the only two longer wars are our least technologically advanced one with the muskets and the lining up in fields to shoot at each other.....and the other missing part of out "Ill Advised Wars" Triptych.

So there we are, Iraq and Afghanistan have almost taken as long as it took to win our independence, four times as long as it took to beat the Hun, and twice as long as it took to beat the Hun again. But maybe it's not a fair comparison seeing as those wars had something our two new babies didn't have: a purpose and an easily defined endpoint.

Oh, do you think you should do something?

The Obama Administration has looked at the economy and found, much to their surprise, that they might have to do something about the job market. Sure, when it was the financial sector in trouble, our elected betters swept in and threw out money like halloween candy. But when it's workers, they need months and months of evidence before they decide that maybe someone should do something. The epiphany came when economic adviser Paul Volcker explained to the White House that the 9.8 number they kept hearing in relation to jobs was not a positivity rating on a scale of 10, but the percentage of people unemployed. It was then everyone knew action was needed.

President Obama’s economic team discussed a wide range of ideas at a meeting on Monday, following his Saturday radio address in which he said it would “explore additional options to promote job creation.” But officials emphasized that a decision was still far off and that in any event the effort would not add up to a second economic stimulus package, only an extension of the first.
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Among the options for additional steps is some variation on Mr. Obama’s proposal during the stimulus debate to give employers a $3,000 tax credit for each new hire, which Congress rejected last winter partly out of concern that businesses would manipulate their payrolls to claim the credit. Another option would allow more businesses to deduct their net operating losses going back five years instead of the usual two; Congress limited the break to small businesses as part of the economic stimulus law.

The search for further remedies is part of a two-track effort in the White House and Congress. Democrats are also considering plans to continue through 2010 the extra unemployment assistance and health benefits available to people who are out of work for long periods.

Oooh, tax credits, deducting losses, extending unemployment benefits....these all sound exactly like things that were in the original stimulus bill and would have to be extended soon. You know, the stimulus bill that was too small and didn't actually stimulate job growth as much as it made sure the job numbers only crashed into the ground at an insane speed instead of a mindbogglingly insane speed? Of course they're just going to extend old non-working plans instead of creating better new ones. That's because Washington is a stupid place and no one is capable of learning anything or doing anything productive while the prospect of electoral gains are on the horizon in 2010....or 2012...or anytime really. Let's just say incapable.

What's funny is that when you read a comprehensive piece on the Obama team's stimulus efforts, like Ryan Lizza's in the New Yorker, you see that the Administration didn't really think that they'd be at this point despite warnings from people on that team that what they were doing was too small and too focused on tax cuts. Did I say funny? I meant horrifying. Ah well, I guess the solution is to extend everything. I'm sure that'll fix everything in amazing ways that didn't happen the first time around.

The obvious happens again

Judges rule Franken winner; Coleman to appeal

Three judges soundly rejected Norm Coleman's attempt to reverse Al Franken's lead in the U.S. Senate election late Monday, sweeping away the Republican's claims in a blunt ruling Coleman promised to appeal.

After a trial spanning nearly three months, the judicial panel dismissed Coleman's central argument that the election and its aftermath were fraught with systemic errors that made the results invalid.

"The overwhelming weight of the evidence indicates that the Nov. 4, 2008, election was conducted fairly, impartially and accurately," the panel said in its unanimous decision.

Not only does a three judge panel recognize Franken as the winner, not only does a three judge panel declare that Franken should be certified, not only does a three judge panel openly laugh at the merits of Coleman's case, not only does the three judge panel mock the "evidence" Coleman offers up, but then this same three judge panel goes ahead and uses the decision to start knocking out pillars from any supposed appeal Coleman would make to the Minnesota and US Supreme Courts. The result? Minnesota gets it's time wasted for another month or so as Coleman valiantly charges forward in his fruitless appeals and search for justice any way to keep Democrats from getting a 59th Senator.

How bad is it for Norm? Even Joe Scarborough is trying to talk sense into him. What's that old saying? "When you've lost Joe Scarborough, you probably lost most of rational America five months ago. Now you're just starting to piss off crazies."

For Senator Franken, he just gets to live out another day in what has become his own sequel to Groundhog Day. He keeps reliving a day where august legal bodies tell him he's the senator, but he never actually gets to that day where he is a senator. It's OK Al, Norm can only appeal his loss to two more places. Surely that can't take 5+ years.

This changes nothing

You hear that sound earlier emanating from Minnesota? It was God laughing. No, not over Michelle Bachmann thinking that public service and socialist re-education camps are exactly the same thing, but over the latest development in Minnesota's endless Senate race.

Democrat Al Franken's lead in Minnesota's U.S. Senate race widened Tuesday to 312 votes after previously rejected absentee ballots were added to the counting.

Franken did better than Republican Norm Coleman by a nearly 2-to-1 margin as the ballots were opened and counted as part of a lawsuit brought by Coleman over the statewide recount. A three-judge panel ruled earlier that 351 ballots had been improperly rejected during the election and should be restored.

Franken led by 225 votes going into Tuesday's count of those ballots.

I'm sure this is all a wonderful precursor to several more lawsuits that will change nothing. That's the beauty of our judicial system: you can gum up the works with lawsuits no matter how meritless they are. Someone from the Minnesota Supreme Court want to step in? No? One Senator is all right with you? Fine.

Quote of the day

John Cornyn on why Minnesota will never have a second senator:

Texas Sen. John Cornyn is threatening “World War III” if Democrats try to seat Al Franken in the Senate before Norm Coleman can pursue his case through the federal courts.

Cornyn, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, acknowledges that a federal challenge to November’s elections could take “years” to resolve. But he’s adamant that Coleman deserves that chance — even if it means Minnesota is short a senator for the duration.

Sorry Minnesota, doesn't matter how many times Al Franken wins this thing or how many courts rule on his side, you don't get another Senator. Why? Because John Cornyn will get all pissy if Norm Coleman isn't able to file a million fruitless lawsuits. I'd say I sympathize, but you inflicted Michelle Bachmann and her tenure as America's dumbest elected representative ever, so I guess God is punishing you.

Sorry Al, looks like you'll be the only guy ever running for re-election that never got to take his seat.