Old men with beards would like to scare you about the economy

Emperor of the Economy and Grand Vichy of Loose Change, Ben Bernanke, gathered the Justice League of Economics Professors and Financial Sector Giants known as the Fed together to issue a proclamation: we're all going to die from lack of money. Extreme exposure to lack of cash elements so harsh that our bodies and minds won't be able to handle it. Oh sure, you may have your foolish optimism or some notion that "this can't happen in America", but they have charts, scholarly analysis, and beards. Oh do they have beards.

Break it to us softly, wizened elders.

Members of the Federal Reserve lowered their expectations for economic growth and raised their projections of the nation's unemployment rate, cautioning for the first time in recent memory that the low employment rate "over the next several years... would likely be below levels they consider to be consistent" with their mandate to maximize employment, according to meeting minutes released Wednesday.
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A review of minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meetings dating back to September 2008 -- the height of the financial crisis -- reveal no other meetings in which central bank policymakers expressed such a dim view of the unemployment rate. While the minutes have expressed such caution regarding the expected inflation rate, they have not indicated that the low level of employment would be so low as to threaten their legal mandate to pursue those policies that maximize employment.

Hmm, not to nitpick while you're dropping sadness bombs, but that "mandate to maximize employment"? Yeah, that doesn't seem like something you've been too serious about over these past few years. Or ever. Yeah. You seemed to be more interested in chasing the invisible inflation dragon. See, inflation rate-> remains tame, employment rate-> DEAR GOD I CAN'T LOOK IT BURNS MY EYES!

It's nice that you pretend care about the poors and their field tilling jobs now, but it would have been appreciated during the Wall Street money orgy you were presiding over when other smart people who weren't in you special club with the offices that smell of rich mahogany were yelling bloody murder about the increasing jobless rates.

Ahh, I'm just being mean because the economy is going to be awful for a decade or more. It's not your fault, Fed guys. You have your limited set of tools and those typically do the job. But not when things are this bad and not when we have an entire branch of government that has abdicated it's duties in favor of intermittently squabbling amongst themselves and attempting to pull the country down on itself for political gain. Thanks for the concern.

..........Growth?

U.S. Economy Grew at Fastest Pace in 6 Years Last Quarter

The United States economy grew at its fastest pace in over six years at the end of 2009, but a sluggish job market is still souring economists on the sustainability of the recovery.

Gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter, well above analysts’ expectations. It had grown at an annualized rate of 2.2 percent in the previous quarter. Analysts had forecast annualized growth of 4.8 percent in the quarter, and the better-than-expected result sent stocks higher when trading opened on Wall Street.

“It was excellent report, but it’s not clear how sustainable this pace of growth is,” said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics. “We need numbers like this for the next two years, and I just don’t think we can achieve that.”

What the hell? 5.7%? That's like... a real number. The kind of number you need to see to start believing we might actually stave off of our impending dystopian hobo future. Things are looking good. No, things are looking great. Gentlemen, dust off the spats, shine up the monocle, order that gold toilet you've been eying, and... wait, I found the rainy cloud for this parade.

Seems that the reason for the growth is that businesses were replenishing stocks and inventory that had been allowed to dwindle because of the recession. Actual growth, not taking into account this unsustainable blip, was 2.2%. I think the phrase of the day you want to learn is: "inventory bounce". Why are some economists looking at this 5.7% number, looking at the inventory bounce/blip and saying "...ehhhhh"? Well because other economic indicators are poor, namely the jobs market.

Once again we've learned one of the fundamental lessons of this recovery: as long as you are an abstract number representing our economy and not someone actually living within the economy, things are looking good for you.

What is happening?

Uh-oh, might there be evidence that glass half full, parade rainers like ourselves will soon have to contend with actual optimism about the economy? Might we have to deal with purely good news with no hints of an economic shitstorm? Will we have to shelve all our hobo and bindle related material? Goddamnit, are things actually starting to improve?

Government efforts to funnel hundreds of billions of dollars into the U.S. economy appear to be helping the U.S. climb out of the worst recession in decades.
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The U.S. economy is beginning to show signs of improvement, with many economists asserting the worst is past and data pointing to stronger-than-expected growth. On Tuesday, data showed manufacturing grew in August for the first time in more than a year. "There's a method to the madness. We're getting out of this," said Brian Bethune, chief U.S. financial economist at IHS Global Insight.

Blaaarg, the good news...it burns us! What next? Oh Jesus Christ, the manufacturing index grew for the first time in 18 months! Horrid sunshine, oppress some other being with your vile illumination. Surely there must me some terrible lining. Most of the stimulus hasn't even been spent yet...adding percentage points to growth...increased consumer consumption, investment, and spending...0% growth without stimulus...magic blowjob fairies return...11 industry groups showing growth...
FUCK!!!!!!!!
It seems the only thing they're wondering about is how much of the growth will continue if the stimulus stops and which action the government took is most responsible for improving things. Someone, anyone, relentlessly fearmonger to me without any regard to the facts.

Eric Cantor: Since we know now that the Stimulus has not met the criteria by which it was passed and the White House promoted it, which was to stave off job losses and to stop unemployment from reaching above 8.5%, since we know it’s been a failure, why not do the responsible thing, which is to take the $400 billion that has not been committed yet - or not been spent, but been committed to the stimulus - and just pay off the debt and deficit so we can get our fiscal house back in order?

Whew! God bless Eric Cantor. I mean sure, what he says runs contrary to what even the Wall Street Journal is forced to recognize and that when he does appearances back in his district he takes credit for the stimulus and the jobs it created in Virginia, but I'll be damned if he doesn't stew a good pot full of economic gloom. Thanks buddy, I needed that.